What is a potential promise? It’s the observable/unobservable, direct/indirect, understandable/perplexing, … factor(s) that create an expectation of personal value for a network. This expectation of personal value, this potential promise, must be present before a network has any chance of building mass.

In our changing world where we’re witnessing a “fundamental inversion of mass media economics”, potential promises are keystones of network value.

Step back for a second for some required reading,

Joshua Porter:

From now on I’m going to call this idea the “Del.icio.us Lesson”. This is the lesson that personal value precedes network value: that selfish use comes before shared use…

Alex Barnett

Personal value >> Network effects >> Personal value

Ray Deck

The problem with relying on network effects is that if the first few users don’t get value, there’s no way you’re going to get 10,000 to form substantive network effects.

Personal value comes before network effects and potential promises create an expectation of personal value - which in turn helps develop network effects (which incidentally create and nurture further potential promises… completing the virtuous cycle).

Sometimes the potential promise is clear and easily equates to personal value: del.icio.us offers the potential promise of personal web content organization; personal value is obtained whenever I find that page that I tagged but couldn’t remember; and network value comes from del.icio.us/popular, subscribing to the tags of others, …

In other cases a potential promise is convoluted and does not equate easily to personal value: MySpace offers many potential promises (the case with huge networks). Let’s examine one. For some, MySpace offers the potential promise of popularity – more friends on your page, increased chance of being perceived as popular. The personal value isn’t popularity - it’s being able to talk with friends, discover new music, etc. MySpace can’t make you cool, but it can offer the potential of becoming popular.

The difference between potential promises and personal value can be anywhere from subtle to considerable. Regardless, a network must develop and nurture a potential promise in order to create personal value. And without personal value there won’t be network effects.

[bonus: we’ve seen that potential promises can help de-commoditize your product – does it also influence the purchase of publishing companies?]

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